Analysis

Spot Gold is currently trading around the $1,205 level today, near its three-week low as the dollar strengthened across the board following the Federal Reserve’s decision to end its asset-purchase program known as ‘Quantative Easing’ last night. Fed officials, who voted on whether to proceed with plans to end the monthly bond-buying or not, dismissed recent turmoil in global financial markets and weak inflation figures, instead focusing on employment gains as they sig…

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The Bank of England released the minutes from the MPC October meeting last week on 22nd October, coming in with a continued 7 - 2 vote on interests rates, and a 9 – 0 vote as expected on Asset Purchases. Ian McCafferty & Martin Weale were again the members that voted against the proposition of leaving interest rates unchanged, sticking by their preference of increasing the Bank Rate by 25 basis points.McCafferty citing that the relatively low level and pace of decline of spar…

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Figures out this morning from the ONS show a massive slowdown in the prices of goods and services purchased by UK consumers in September. The Inflation figure fall from 1.5% in the previous month to 1.2% in this one, along with other economic shakes of recent weeks greatly slackens the pressure on the BoE and more than likely puts the date of an interest rate rise in the UK back even further in the new year. Inflation is now at its lowest mark in five years sitting only a whisker…

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Wednesday 1st October saw European equities moving sideways while the Euro sells off sharply as a result of yet weaker macro data highlighting further growth challenges in the Eurozone, a point the ECB will more than likely address at its meeting tomorrow. European Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.3 compared to a previous estimate of 50.5 creating worrying signs for the region’s Manufacturing Sector as orders appear to be diminishing for the first time since June 2013 leading to m…

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As Thursday, the day of reckoning for Scotland and its possible split from the United Kingdom draws ever closer, the debate reaches fever pitch with political, economic, celebrity and even Royal personnel voicing their views in the hope of swaying public opinion. This week, alone, we have heard from several obscure sources, ranging from the likes of David Beckham, Billy Brag to even the Queen herself who accidentally went against her previous better judgement of keeping quiet on the subject…

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EURCHF is currently trading at 1.2063, its lowest level since December 2012 and as we all know the Swiss Franc is currently pegged to the Euro. Following legislation by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in 2011 this particular currency pair has been trading in a fairly tight range, they have expressed their desire not to allow CHF to strengthen too much against its more influential neighbour thus creating a unique situation of, in effect, placing a price floor of 1.20. In the past 18…

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The Bank of England release the minutes from the MPC August meeting, with a surprise 7 - 2 vote on interests rates, and a 9 - 0 Vote as expected on asset purchases. Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale voted against the proposition of leave interest rates unchanged, preferring to increase Bank Rate by 25 basis points. This is the first time that any of the MPC has dissented from Carney's position of rates being held at 50 bps. GBPUSD Following yesterday's low…

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The UK economy had been showing strong signs of growth and looked as if it was exiting the financial crisis faster than markets had expected. However the timing of the Bank of England’s rate rise has become the focal point of traders. Expectations vary by analyst though the median expectation is the first half of 2015, though there had been some belief the BoE might act before the year end. Sunday Times Interview This weekend the Bank of England Governor did an interview wi…

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Bank of England released their quarterly inflation report this morning, with the prepared headlines of increased expectations of growth and employment figures putting a bid into Sterling. However the move was short lived, as details of a rate hike projection before year end almost diminished. GBP weakened on the back of comments made in the press conference, as Carney attempted to talk the pound down. With unemployment dropping rapidly, the focus for the BoE has now moved to wage growt…

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Data released by Markit/CIPS, showed better than expected UK service sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). In July Services PMI the figure was better than expected at 59.1, compared to Junes 57.6, with growth picking up pace. Service sector employment growth continued, which should contribute towards better UK ILO Unemployment figures. GBP In the FX markets sterling rallied on the back of the strong figure, with GBPUSD trading to session highs just shy of 1.69. The likeli…

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It is the 1st August and the first Friday of the month, and today the US Bureau of Labor releases their employment figures, Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (London,UK). In the last few trading sessions, the USD has been bid against the majors, following Federal Reserve’s announcement of further tapering and policy statement that interest rates are not too far off. This has seen US indices trade lower, and Gold weaken by $20, now trading $1282/oz. Recent data: Initial jobless cla…

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The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), growth continued in July, though missed expectations. The survey released at 9:30am (London), was 55.4 for July, down from 57.2 in June. The number was well above the 50 level (contraction/expansion level), however sterling has been weak in FX markets against the USD in the last few days. GBPUSD In the last quarter, the majority of macro releases were beating expectations, with Sterling trading at a 5-year high on int…

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