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Abshire-Smith Market Analysis

UK GDP estimate disappoints, Q4 2014

The estimate for UK Q4 GDP missed expectations, with a slightly softer reading of 0.5%, versus the median expectation of 0.6%. The economic growth for the UK economy has become sluggish, during the worst period of the economic crisis, GDP contracted by 6.0% (Q1 2008 - Q2 2009). In the last MPC minutes Weale and McCafferty were shown to have changed their stance, and voted to leave interest rates unchanged in a 9-0 consensus. The latest economic data gives the MPC members time to consider when...

EURUSD trades to a new multi-year low (1.1114)

On Thursday ECB President Draghi announced his “Big Bazooka” the ECB quantitative easing programme (QE). The central bank announced a slightly larger bond-buying programme of €60 billion per month into 2016. This is a significant amount of “money printing” which is an attempt to stimulate growth within the Eurozone. The announcement had been widely priced in following tactical leaks to the press prior to the event. EURUSD ...

How big is Draghi’s Bazooka?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce quantitative easing (QE) at their policy meeting in Frankfurt. The market expectation is for an injection into the economy of €1 trillion into the Eurozone, therefore this belief is priced into the current market prices. The Euro has weakened, and Gold has been bid in recent days, however yesterday on the source (WSJ )that the ECB would buy roughly €50 billion of bonds per month, the Euro rallied and Gold softened. Traders attempted.....

Minutes of the MPC Meeting 7 and 8 January 2015

The Bank of England released the minutes for their meeting held on 7 and 8 January 2015. At recent meetings two members voting for an increase of in interest and a 9 – 0 vote for leaving asset purchases unchanged. Current policy; Interest rates: 0.5% Asset purchases (QE): £375bn Last month’s inflation rate for the UK at 0.5% the joint lowest reading on record seems to have been the leaning factor for McCatherty and Weale to switch their votes. Inflation has been pulled lower by the dramatic s...

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