The Bank of England will release the Monetary Policy Committees minutes for the meeting on the 6th November. The MPC voted to leave interest rates at the record low of 0.50% and the quantitative easing asset purchase programme is £375bn. The announcement was as expected, with little effect to sterling in the FX markets.
The October minutes showed the vote was 7-2, with the two dissenters being Ian McCafferty & Martin Weale. Traders will be watching today’s minutes for a change in tone, or a hint as to the timing of when the bank will begin tightening monetary policy. Weale and McCatherty are both expected to have voted for a 25bps rate hike.
UBS currently predict BoE rate hike to be August 2015— Abshire-Smith (@abshiresmith) November 19, 2014
Will there be a third dissenter?
Could the minutes show a third MPC member voted for a rate hike? It is unlikely that the minutes will show a vote that differs from 7-2, however there is a possibility. Analysts have pushed back their estimates for a rate hike to the second half of 2015, or even early 2016.
Who are the current members of the MPC?
Mark Carney – Governor
Nemat (Minouche) Shafik
Sir Jon Cunliffe
Since the rate announcement on the 6th, sterling has weakened against the US dollar by over 300 pips, trading to a multi-year low, below the 1.56 level.
The next rate decision is the 4th December, the final meeting for 2014.