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Non-Farm Payrolls, What does The Street Expect?

It’s the first Friday of the month, which means that it at 13:30 (London) the pivotal US employment report will be released.  The Non-Farm Payrolls report is compiled by the United States Department of Labor for jobs in manufacturing, goods, services and construction, but doesn’t include non-profit, private household or farm works (due to the seasonal swings).

The unusually disruptive weather has caused havoc across North America, which has been the go-to reason for analysts for recent disappointing figures. The Fed’s Beige book released on Wednesday stated repeatedly, how the weather had disrupted the economy. The main concern from analysts is that the weather is a good excuse for poor figures, but are the economic releases highlighting a weaker recovery of the US economy than had previously been hoped for.

The ADP report for February created fewer jobs that the market had expected, with the headline figure being well below the 12-month average. The ADP report said that employment increased by 139,000 jobs, with a market consensus of 158,000.

How is the market placed?

The release usually brings considerable volatility as trades attempt to interpret the important release, and then reposition themselves to either book profits or cover losses. The potential for confusion is due to their, being the headline number, unemployment percentages and then revisions to previous months.

Currently EURUSD is bid above 1.39, cable trading above 1.6750 and Gold sitting around $1350/oz with the markets on edge following the recent tension in Ukraine.

Sigma Squawk Information Services released a very good summary, which is worth reading, this can be found here

Best of luck.

The above information and commentary is compiled from various sources, and is accurate to the best of Abshire-Smith’s knowledge, though unfortunately this cannot be guaranteed as they are third party opinions and subject to change. Please base any trading positions on your own views and research, and contact an independent financial advisor if you are unsure. Trading the financial markets involves significant potential risk of loss, potentially more than your initial investment. 

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