Mark Carney

The Bank of England has the enviable position that the UK economy is growing and needs to time the exit of ultra-loose monetary policy. Interest rates have been at the record low (0.50%) for over 5 years, and the economy is in recovery mode. The majority of economists are pencilling in a rate rise for Q1/2 in 2015. How is the economy doing? Economic growth: 3% for 2014 and 2.4% in 2015 (Confederation of British Industries) 2.9% for 2014 and 2.7% in 201…

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released its first estimate for UK growth for the last 3 months at 0.8% slightly below analysts’ expectations of 0.9% for the quarter. The UK economy has grown by 3.1% over the last year, the ONS says. That's the strongest year-on-year change in GDP since the Q4 of 2007, after the near-collapse of Northern Rock.Though the figure is "disappointing” compared to expectations the key point to remember is that is shows the economy…

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their March statistics for UK retail sales. The volume of sales edged up by 0.1% compared to February, a marginal improvement though the year-on-year figures were significantly higher, up 4.2% compared with March 2013. This difference has in part been attributed to the freezing cold weather that was experienced last year, which hampered sales. The headline for the release is that that the Non-Food stores saw the highest YoY increase (+9…

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The Bank of England released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the 9th April this morning. The MPC voted unanimously (9-0) to leave interest rates at the record low level of 0.50% and the level of asset purchases unchanged at £375bn. Following the release in the FX markets sterling has been choppy as some would have hoped that a member of the MPC might have voted for a raise in rates. Cable is trading at a 5 year high with traders betting on the economic gr…

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The Office for National Statistics released the ILO Unemployment rate for the 3-months to February, which dropped to 6.9% from the previous reading of 7.1%. Employment was 239,000 higher than for September to November 2013 and 691,000 higher than a year earlier (ONS). The release shows a significant improvement in the unemployment rate, and poses a headache for the Bank of England. Mark Carney detailed under his forward guidance that the threshold for increasing interest rates would be the u…

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The release on Wednesday morning from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the number of people in employment has continued to increase. The 3-month unemployment rate for November 2013-January 2014 was 7.2%, just above the Bank of England Forward Guidance 7% threshold announced in August 2013. The full ONS Labour Market Statistics release for March 2014…

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The National Institute of Economic and Social Research released their estimates that output grew by 0.8% in the 3 months ending in February. This is a slight improvement on the estimate for January which believed growth to be at +0.7% for the prevailing 3 months, though this undershoots the pre-recession peak. Interest Rates The NIESR anticipates that the Bank of England will leave rates unchanged at the record low of 0.5% until the Q2 2015. There is concern from some market comm…

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As the 5 year anniversary of the Bank of England cutting interest rates to 0.5%, the bank has announced to leave the base rate and asset purchases unchanged. The current level of asset purchases (QE) remains at £375bn. The 5 year anniversary is a significant length of time for interest rates to be held at the record low of 0.50%. The ultra-loose monetary policy has been highlighted as a risk to the economy by some analysts. Mark Carney’s policy of Forward Guidance headline…

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The inflation rate for the UK fell to below the Bank of England’s target of 2% for the first time since November 2009. Inflation has overshot the 2% target since then, which had been a concern for analysts, who believed the central bank would need to raise interest rates to combat the rise. Mark Carney has now released “Forward Guidance 2.0,” which is focused on the output gap, which last year the BoE said was “unobservable” and “difficult to explain&rdquo…

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Mark Carney the Governor of the Bank of England spoke before the Treasury committee on Wednesday. He stated that he wasn’t concerned by the house price rises in the UK and expects the housing market to cool by 2016. The housing market, primarily in the South East, has seen considerable gains with fears of a bubble in pricing emerging. The record low interest rates (0.50%) combined with minimal new supply and increasing demand, has fuelled double digit percent rises per year in some reg…

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UK consumer price inflation (CPI) has slowed to the Bank of England’s target level of 2%, for the first time since April 2006. The December release from the Office for National Statistics showed that CPI had fell from 2.1% in November to 2.0% in December. The Bank of England targets 2.0% inflation, which has been consistently overshot since 2009. CPI is calculated from a basket of goods and services that is meant to represent household expenditure. The largest contributors to the…

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The Bank of England will announce at 12pm (London) if they are to maintain the current base rate of 0.50% and if they will adjust the current level of asset purchase of £375bn. The UK economic recovery is beginning to take hold, and there has been considerable speculation as to when the Lady of Threadneedle St. will raise base rates from their current record low. KPMG/REC: UK Jobs Growth Strongest Since March 2010 < 7% threshold here we come... — Joe Bond (@Joe_T…

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Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has warned the “great risk” of unwinding the current quantitative easing programme. The stimulus was headed by his predecessor Mervyn King, a mixture of ultra-low interest rates and QE. Carney was speaking to the House of Lords, mentioning the risk of the Federal Reserves tapering of their QE, and how the BoE might execute its unwind. This is a difficult task, as the UK economy is staging a recovery, though there is concern increasing in…

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The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold interest rates unchanged at the record-low rate of 0.5%, and the level of asset purchases at £375bn. Under the Banks forward guidance policy the focus had been on the unemployment level falling to the threshold of 7%. However this target was left in question following the BoE Inflation report with Carney, saying the bank might not raise rates immediately following a drop in unemployment. MPC Vote…

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The Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s comments during the latest inflation report on Tuesday. Prior to the news conference Sterling was bid on the back of the better than expected employment figures, which had traders predicting that the BoE would raise rates sooner than had been predicted. Under the banks forward guidance, 7% unemployment level had been the threshold, highlighted by Carney as the level that monetary policy would begin to be tightened. This was thrown in to…

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