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EURUSD - Current Price $1.05928 EURUSD saw an early dip to $1.0570 lows, but there has been short-covering since with the pair currently trading back to around unchanged in a relatively small range. Despite some decent data out of the Eurozone, any major recovery attempts look fragile, with the single currency continuing to be dogged by geopolitical concerns. Looking ahead, University of Michigan sentiment and US New Home Sales are just about all we have to look forward to on the sched…

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UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne made his first statement since the UK’s EU referendum this morning in a bid to stabilise markets. He stressed that the UK government is “ready to deal with the consequences” and that the UK economy is strong. Despite these reassuring words, he also heeded that there will need to be “a period of adjustment” and that “there is going to be an impact on public finances”, although any new budget would b…

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As predicted, the Federal Reserve kept short-term interest rates unchanged at near zero yesterday but signalled that a rate hike before the turn of the year remains a possibility. As was the case in September, the central bank’s accompanying statement did not explicitly mention concerns over the Chinese economy as a reason not to raise rates for the first time in a decade. Last month they cited turbulent financial markets and uncertain economic developments overseas as reasons fo…

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The Eurozone’s single currency seems to be heading towards parity against the US dollar, starting the year above 1.20, now trading 1.0650. In March 2014 EURUSD traded just shy of the 1.40 mark, the story is driven by the divergence in economic situations between the US and the European periphery. Following Draghi’s announcement of QE the sentiment towards the Eurozone has turned sour. Greece’s potential exit from the single currency has unnerved investors with the cur…

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The situation in Greece continues to dominate the markets and news flow. The recent election of the anti-austerity Syriza party has led to uncertainty as to whether Greece will leave the single currency. Alexis Tsipras the new PM, is locked in crucial talks to negotiate funds to ensure that the country doesn’t default on its commitments. With only two weeks of leadership, the moves by Tsipras are radical, and could have catastrophic repercussions. An exit from the Eurozone would…

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The Greek people elected a new government to power on the 25th January; Syriza are an anti-austerity party led by Alexis Tsipras. They were elected as the people have suffered through the stringent austerity measures dictated under international bailout agreements. Without an end insight and significant economic improvement the Greek people have voted for change. Greece’s financial stability and future EU membership is in question, as Tsipras attempts to negotiate alternatives,…

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The estimate for UK Q4 GDP missed expectations, with a slightly softer reading of 0.5%, versus the median expectation of 0.6%. The economic growth for the UK economy has become sluggish, during the worst period of the economic crisis, GDP contracted by 6.0% (Q1 2008 - Q2 2009). In the last MPC minutes Weale and McCafferty were shown to have changed their stance, and voted to leave interest rates unchanged in a 9-0 consensus. The latest economic data gives the MPC members time to consid…

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The Swiss National Bank has reaffirmed their commitment to the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per Euro. “Consequently, the SNB will continue to enforce the minimum exchange rate with the utmost determination. It is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities for this purpose.” There had been concern that a referendum (Save Our Swiss Gold) would leave the SNB unable to maintain the floor. The initiative was rejected by the Swiss people, which initially…

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Three years ago the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced a lower limit (floor) for the EURCHF exchange rate of 1.20, vowing to protect the level to stop the appreciation of the Swiss Franc. Since that date, the Head of the SNB, Thomas Jordan has regularly verbally intervened stating the central bank “would buy in unlimited amounts.” The verbal intervention has also been at times accompanied by bank buying Euro’s to hold the floor, to stop the strengthening of the CHF.…

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Bank of England released their quarterly inflation report this morning, with the prepared headlines of increased expectations of growth and employment figures putting a bid into Sterling. However the move was short lived, as details of a rate hike projection before year end almost diminished. GBP weakened on the back of comments made in the press conference, as Carney attempted to talk the pound down. With unemployment dropping rapidly, the focus for the BoE has now moved to wage growt…

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The World Cup starts on the 12th June running until the 13th July, being hosted by Brazil, South America. The global scale of the sport means that there are significant amounts of money invested into advertising, hospitality, sponsorship and infrastructure. Is there a correlation between the fortunes of a football team in the tournament and a nation's currency? Well in short, no, there isn’t a direct link over the long term, but the tournament does have an impact on the marke…

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Following the Christmas trading break and prior to the New Year, liquidity is thin as many are away from their desk. In the FX market, the limited participant’s leads to reduced liquidity, movement in the majors can be more sporadic than usual. Spreads are slightly wider in the institutional market to reflect the fewer traders at their desk and limited risk appetite. (This doesn’t affect Abshire-Smith trading accounts with fixed spreads). In the FX market USD has been on th…

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Forex Magnates London Summit 2013

On Tuesday, I was fortunate enough to attend the Forex Magnates Summit in London. The annual conference plays host to participants from all areas of the FX market including brokers, payment providers, technology vendors, prime brokers, prime of prime providers and liquidity aggregators. The conference is a two-day exhibition and conference, with different discussion panels. The industry specialists from high profile members of the FX community discussed current topics and issues.…

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It may seem farfetched, but due to political deadlock in the US, the government has been unable to agree an increase to the debt ceiling, forcing the non-essential government employees to cease working. As the 3rd quarter begins, the US has been unable to agree an increase in the borrowing limit to fund the government’s expenditure. President Obama addressed the nation, making it clear than the government will not be held to ransom over Obamacare, and that these bills have been p…

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Sterling was given a boost in early trade as comments from the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney. The Governor had been making visits to cities in the North of England and was interviewed by local newspapers Thursday, as these comments reached traders on Friday morning Sterling jumped against the greenback by 80 cent to a session high of 1.6132. Quantitative Easing Analysts and market commentators have been quick to criticise to the timescale of policy tightenin…

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