The latest ONS inflation data came out this morning, and it showed a huge jump in the 12-month Consumer Prices Index, rising to 2.9% in August, up from 2.6% in July. These increases were broad based, with prices for clothing and footwear, furniture and household goods and restaurants and hotels rising at their fastest rates since 2012 or earlier. Air fares also rose between July and August but the rise was smaller than between the same two months a year ago and so resulted in a partial…

Economists’ Expectations: Rabobank: It’s expected that the economy will have added around 180,000 jobs in March, which is more than enough to absorb the inflow of labor and, hence, to reduce the slack in the job market. The expected gain in payrolls would follow a 235,000 jump in February, which was significantly above the average of the past twelve months. This was partially due to a large increase in manufacturing and construction employment – the latter being…

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/604079/Prime_Ministers_letter_to_European_Council_President_Donald_Tusk.pdf…

ARTICLE 50 - Timetable 1. The Prime Minister will write a letter on Wednesday to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, formally notifying him of the UK's intention to leave the EU. 2. Then President Tusk will issue draft guidelines outlining how the negotiations should be conducted. As indicated before he will reveal the draft within around 48 hours of receiving the letter. It is then expected that the proposed guidelines will be considered by EU leaders (exclud…

BySandeep Kanihama Here are the NFP expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 8 major banks. All the 8 major banks expect that the February NFP to print a number in between 185K to 225K while they expect the unemployment rate to slip back to 4.7% from 4.8% in January. TDS While we acknowledge a somewhat tenuous link between ADP and payrolls, the magnitude of this week’s positive surprise—in conjunction with continued very low initial…

EURUSD - Current Price $1.05928 EURUSD saw an early dip to $1.0570 lows, but there has been short-covering since with the pair currently trading back to around unchanged in a relatively small range. Despite some decent data out of the Eurozone, any major recovery attempts look fragile, with the single currency continuing to be dogged by geopolitical concerns. Looking ahead, University of Michigan sentiment and US New Home Sales are just about all we have to look forward to on the sched…

European equities opened higher after fresh record peaks from their US counterparts, but have pared initial gains, with both the FTSE and the DAX now treading water marginally above parity. As such, core EU debt has pushed ahead, led by German paper, with another record low for the Schatz and the 10-year yield at its lowest since early January. This despite firm IFO numbers, with all components topping expectations while pan-Eurozone CPI matched expectations. An underwhelming German July 204…

EURUSD - Current Price $1.0509 (-$0.0028) EURUSD is on the back foot this morning, tumbling from the mid-$1.0500s to its lowest level since 11th January due to the political uncertainty surrounding the EU as anti-euro candidates like Marine Le Pen are making strong inroads. The single currency will continue to fall if German IFO comes in weaker along with cooler pan-Euorzone CPI. In terms of technicals, we target support at the 11th January low at $1.0454 followed by the January 4th lo…

European equities initially chased their US and Asian counterparts higher but have pared back some gains. The FTSE is leading its German counterpart, benefiting from the strong performance in the materials sector after China’s strong January trade report overnight. Elsewhere, oil prices have rallied in the wake of the IEA monthly report, in which they raised their global oil demand and highlighted that OPEC made production cuts in January equal to 90% of the agreed volumes. In fixed, c…

* US Treasuries hold gains in Asia as equities trade mixed,the Nikkei -0.6%, hang Seng +0.3% and the ASX +0.7%. * Sources say the BoJ would rather be late than early in raising 10y yield tgt even if CPI hits 1% later this year and sees considerable risks in moving too quickly. * JapanesePMI 52.8 v 52.4 prev , the fatsest pace in 3 years. * US Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin said “excessively strong” dollar may have negative impact. * US judge app…

EURUSD - Current Price $1.07316 The USD continues to trade on the defensive this session after President Trump's inauguration speech raised concerns about potential protectionist trade policies. Eur/Usd which slid to an early low near $1.0680 has bounced back to clinch a daily high of $1.0755 ahead of pan-Eurozone consumer confidence and speeches from ECB President Draghi and Chief Economist Praet. From a technical view, we look for resistance around the $1.08 round figure mark fol…

* US Treasuries gain in late NY and Asia. *Equities are mixed with Japan down as yen rallies the Nikkei -1.3%, ASX -0.8% , Hang Seng unch. * Broader dollar weakness pushes EUR above $1.074. * Oil is little changed even with Russian output cut early than expected by 100k barreles and with OPEC producers agreeing on a way to monitor output cuts. * Gold rises to 2-month high on Trump policy uncertainty * Fed Williams says balance sheet roll off “will cause ra…

EURUSD - Current Price $1.0622 (-$0.0027) EURUSD is nursing modest losses ahead of the European cash equity market open amid broad risk aversion in financial markets. This follows a report in the Sunday Times over the weekend that UK PM Theresa May will signal she is prepared to leave the single market in a speech tomorrow. The pair reached a low of $1.0593 in Asia although swiftly reclaimed the $1.06 handle. Looking ahead, Italian CPI and Euro Zone trade data make up the data slate wh…

CIBC: The pace of hiring should look more or less unchanged when November’s data is released on Friday. With the economy progressing towards full employment, job gains are likely to stabilize around the 160K mark. While that’s noticeably slower than the monthly gains seen earlier this year, it’s well ahead of the roughly 100K needed to soak up population growth. A print of 165K in November would see the unemployment rate hold steady at 4.9%. Nomura: We forecast that n…