Cable

Today is Non-Farm Payrolls Friday, the monthly release of the US employment figures that are closely watched by traders. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the report at 13:30, with the headline number of jobs added during May and the unemployment rate. The Fed’s focus on the threshold unemployment rate of 6.5% seems to be waning, with the wage growth and capacity the concentration. Following the release there is usually considerable volatility as traders attempt to react…

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UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released at 9:30 on Wednesday, slightly above expectations at 58.6, versus April’s 58.7. This is another strong print for the UK economy and reinforces the strength in the economic recovery. The services PMI accompanies strong survey reports from the manufacturing and construction sectors, pointing towards a relatively balanced recovery. A highlight of the statistical release was the service sector employment growth strengthened to…

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New official statistics have been released by the HM Treasury today detailing that some 7,313 homes have been sold so far under the 2nd part of the Help To Buy mortgage guarantee scheme covering the six months from 8th October 2013 to 31st March 2014; a further 20,548 new homes were sold through the scheme’s first instalment during the 13 months proceeding this. It cannot be argued that the scheme has indeed helped a lot of hard working people successfully get on the housing ladd…

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The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) has reported today that retail sales growth remains steady, with the sixth consecutive month of growth. According to the Quarterly Distributive Trades Survey, the growth was at a slightly slower pace in May compared with the previous month. The release from the CBI noted that department stores’ volumes had declined compared with a year ago, which was replaced with strong performance in internet sales. The high-street continues to be u…

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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) released their inflation report for May 2014. The dovish tone of the pre-prepared text, led to sterling trading new session lows in the FX market, as the optimism for an interest rate hike in the near term was dampened as Carney attempted to lower expectations. The BoE left their forecasts for both inflation and growth almost unchanged from the previous release, reinforcing the expectation for a rate hike will not be until 2015.…

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The Bank of England has the enviable position that the UK economy is growing and needs to time the exit of ultra-loose monetary policy. Interest rates have been at the record low (0.50%) for over 5 years, and the economy is in recovery mode. The majority of economists are pencilling in a rate rise for Q1/2 in 2015. How is the economy doing? Economic growth: 3% for 2014 and 2.4% in 2015 (Confederation of British Industries) 2.9% for 2014 and 2.7% in 201…

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Following the low volumes experienced during the European Bank Holiday weekend, it has been another bullish start to the working week for GBPUSD; trading up to 1.6990 in Tuesday’s European trading session. The question is, however, is this trend set to continue? The general consensus on the street seems to be that it will, with some forecasting that there could be a rise to 1.76 by Q4; strong economic data in recent weeks have been cited and with renewed expe…

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The eagerly anticipated monthly US employment release is today at 13:30 BST (London). The Depart for Labor releases the Non-Farm payroll employment report, which covers jobs in goods, manufacturing, and construction companies but excludes farm workers, non-profit organisations and private households. This release will closely watched by traders following the abysmal US Q1 GDP release of 0.1% growth. The figure was a huge disappoint, though the cold weather has been largely blamed for t…

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The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI for April released at 9:30am beat analysts expectations with a print of 57.3 for April vs 55.8 March. The manufacturing index rose to a 5 month high, registering one of the best readings over the last 3 years. This is a significant boost to the UK government, as the economic recovery begins to really take hold, though this puts further pressure on the Bank of England. Carney reiterated that increasing interest rates would happen when the slac…

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release their policy update at 19:00 (BST) this evening. It is expected that Chair Janet Yellen will announce that they will taper the amount of monthly asset purchases by a further $10 billion. The asset purchases are split between Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Since the tapering begun under previous Chairman Bernanke, the FOMC has voted unanimously each month to reduce the purchases by $10bn; any deviation from this is…

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released its first estimate for UK growth for the last 3 months at 0.8% slightly below analysts’ expectations of 0.9% for the quarter. The UK economy has grown by 3.1% over the last year, the ONS says. That's the strongest year-on-year change in GDP since the Q4 of 2007, after the near-collapse of Northern Rock.Though the figure is "disappointing” compared to expectations the key point to remember is that is shows the economy…

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their March statistics for UK retail sales. The volume of sales edged up by 0.1% compared to February, a marginal improvement though the year-on-year figures were significantly higher, up 4.2% compared with March 2013. This difference has in part been attributed to the freezing cold weather that was experienced last year, which hampered sales. The headline for the release is that that the Non-Food stores saw the highest YoY increase (+9…

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The Bank of England released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the 9th April this morning. The MPC voted unanimously (9-0) to leave interest rates at the record low level of 0.50% and the level of asset purchases unchanged at £375bn. Following the release in the FX markets sterling has been choppy as some would have hoped that a member of the MPC might have voted for a raise in rates. Cable is trading at a 5 year high with traders betting on the economic gr…

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The Office for National Statistics released the ILO Unemployment rate for the 3-months to February, which dropped to 6.9% from the previous reading of 7.1%. Employment was 239,000 higher than for September to November 2013 and 691,000 higher than a year earlier (ONS). The release shows a significant improvement in the unemployment rate, and poses a headache for the Bank of England. Mark Carney detailed under his forward guidance that the threshold for increasing interest rates would be the u…

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The Office for National Statistics released inflation data for March this morning, showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had fallen since February; 1.7% to 1.6%. The may contributors to this fall were from the costs of transport and food, with a small impact from clothing and household goods. The full ONS CPI release for March The Retail Price Index (RPI) grew by 2.5% in the year ending Mach 2014, down from 2.7% in February. The macro release should be a positive for…

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