Cable

The final trading session of 2014 is upon us; the year finishes with record highs for US indices, and a bear market in Oil. As the year ends, there has been resurgence in instability in Libya, a near collapse of the Russian Ruble and heightened tensions from North Korea. These are individual views, and shouldn’t be taken as investment advice; Abshire-Smith provides execution only trading. Trading leveraged products such as FX and CFDs, is a high risk and you may lose more than yo…

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Production data released by the Office for National Statistics missed analysts’ expectations. Manufacturing output had its lowest drop in 5-months, though it was pulled down by a fall in the production of computers. The ONS announced that manufacturing output was the only one of the four components of the Index of Production to fall. GBP Sterling was offered following the disappointing figures, trading down to print 1.5641. Cable has been trending in a choppy channel since…

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The Bank of England will release the Monetary Policy Committees minutes for the meeting on the 6th November. The MPC voted to leave interest rates at the record low of 0.50% and the quantitative easing asset purchase programme is £375bn. The announcement was as expected, with little effect to sterling in the FX markets. The October minutes showed the vote was 7-2, with the two dissenters being Ian McCafferty & Martin Weale. Traders will be watching today’s minutes for a…

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GBPUSD The USD has been strong across the board in recent months, as it has reasserted itself as the world’s reserve currency, with the USD Index up over 7% since the summer. Cable has trended lower since the beginning of July, trading from 1.7190 to print a new 12 month low of 1.5652 today. Is a 1.50 handle on the cards in the not too distant future, as Carney seems intent of pushing back the markets expectations of an interest rise, and the Federal Reserve looks to tighte…

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ONS data released at 9:30am, showed that the unemployment rate held steady at 6%, which was also accompanied surprisingly by an increase in wage growth. There were 30.79 million people in work. This was 112,000 more than for April to June 2014 and 694,000 more than for a year earlier. The Bank of England has held interest rates at the record low of 0.50%, with an emphasis on the economic slack, and more specifically the wage growth. These latest releases show improving employment condi…

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The Bank of England released the minutes from the MPC October meeting last week on 22nd October, coming in with a continued 7 - 2 vote on interests rates, and a 9 – 0 vote as expected on Asset Purchases. Ian McCafferty & Martin Weale were again the members that voted against the proposition of leaving interest rates unchanged, sticking by their preference of increasing the Bank Rate by 25 basis points.McCafferty citing that the relatively low level and pace of decline of spar…

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Figures out this morning from the ONS show a massive slowdown in the prices of goods and services purchased by UK consumers in September. The Inflation figure fall from 1.5% in the previous month to 1.2% in this one, along with other economic shakes of recent weeks greatly slackens the pressure on the BoE and more than likely puts the date of an interest rate rise in the UK back even further in the new year. Inflation is now at its lowest mark in five years sitting only a whisker…

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As Thursday, the day of reckoning for Scotland and its possible split from the United Kingdom draws ever closer, the debate reaches fever pitch with political, economic, celebrity and even Royal personnel voicing their views in the hope of swaying public opinion. This week, alone, we have heard from several obscure sources, ranging from the likes of David Beckham, Billy Brag to even the Queen herself who accidentally went against her previous better judgement of keeping quiet on the subject…

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The UK economy had been showing strong signs of growth and looked as if it was exiting the financial crisis faster than markets had expected. However the timing of the Bank of England’s rate rise has become the focal point of traders. Expectations vary by analyst though the median expectation is the first half of 2015, though there had been some belief the BoE might act before the year end. Sunday Times Interview This weekend the Bank of England Governor did an interview wi…

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The Office for National Statistics has released the monthly unemployment figures, with the headline UK ILO Unemployment figure for May was in line with expectations at 6.5%. This is the lowest unemployment rate since October to December 2008; this was just before a significant amount of redundancies began. Jobless claims fell by 36,600, which is higher than the estimated reduction of -27,000 jobs. Wage Data The disappointing part of the data was the wage growth, average earnings…

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UK manufacturing figures released on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics, disappointed investors as they were well below expectations. Sterling has been riding high against the US dollar and Euro, has traders have digested the strong macro data, with the expectation the Bank of England will raise rates early than their current prediction. Today’s release unexpectedly missed forecasts which led to Sterling being offered in the FX markets, following last week’s multi-year…

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Sterling has traded to the highest level since 2008 on Tuesday against the US dollar, following better than expected macro data. UK Manufacturing PMI for June at 57.5, up from 57.0 in May, a number above 50.0 states expansion. The other highlight of the report was job creation at a 39-month high adding to the positive sentiment for the UK economy. RT @World_First: UK Manufacturing PMI (June) = 57.5 vs 56.8 expected and 57.0 previous > Q2 growth surely over 1% — Mike Bi…

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The Bank of England released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting that was held on the 4th and 5th of June 2014. The key line from the BoE minutes is that the MPC members were surprised at the limited expectation from the market, that the MPC would raise rates before the end of the year. relatively low probability of 2014 bank rate rise priced in by markets "somewhat surprising Bank of England voted 9 – 0 to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5…

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We have seen significant moves in cable over the last couple of days; the pound climbed over 200 points against the US dollar following Governor Mark Carney’s address at the annual Mansion House speech on Thursday evening. Carney gave his biggest hint yet that interest rates could rise before the turn of the year, saying ‘there’s already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike in the UK and this decision is becoming more balanced. It could happ…

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their Labour Market statistics for the UK at 9:30am on Wednesday morning. The headline 3-month unemployment rate for February - April 2014 beat expectations, being released at 6.6%, below expectations of 6.7% and the previous release of 6.8%. The UK government will be very pleased with these figures, reinforcing their plan to bring the UK economy back on track, however the opposition is likely to focus on the wage growth. Average earnings gro…

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