Cable

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The latest ONS inflation data came out this morning, and it showed a huge jump in the 12-month Consumer Prices Index, rising to 2.9% in August, up from 2.6% in July. These increases were broad based, with prices for clothing and footwear, furniture and household goods and restaurants and hotels rising at their fastest rates since 2012 or earlier. Air fares also rose between July and August but the rise was smaller than between the same two months a year ago and so resulted in a partial…

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EURUSD - Current Price $1.05928 EURUSD saw an early dip to $1.0570 lows, but there has been short-covering since with the pair currently trading back to around unchanged in a relatively small range. Despite some decent data out of the Eurozone, any major recovery attempts look fragile, with the single currency continuing to be dogged by geopolitical concerns. Looking ahead, University of Michigan sentiment and US New Home Sales are just about all we have to look forward to on the sched…

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EURUSD - Current Price $1.0509 (-$0.0028) EURUSD is on the back foot this morning, tumbling from the mid-$1.0500s to its lowest level since 11th January due to the political uncertainty surrounding the EU as anti-euro candidates like Marine Le Pen are making strong inroads. The single currency will continue to fall if German IFO comes in weaker along with cooler pan-Euorzone CPI. In terms of technicals, we target support at the 11th January low at $1.0454 followed by the January 4th lo…

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EURUSD - Current Price $1.0622 (-$0.0027) EURUSD is nursing modest losses ahead of the European cash equity market open amid broad risk aversion in financial markets. This follows a report in the Sunday Times over the weekend that UK PM Theresa May will signal she is prepared to leave the single market in a speech tomorrow. The pair reached a low of $1.0593 in Asia although swiftly reclaimed the $1.06 handle. Looking ahead, Italian CPI and Euro Zone trade data make up the data slate wh…

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Cable is now down over 17.5% since the UK voted to leave the EU back in June and appears to have now stabilised below the 1.23 handle. Some say the currency was overvalued for years and its fall post-Brexit could serve as a release valve help loosen the stranglehold of the financial elites over the UK economy, which is just now just rebalancing as expected. Exports will, no doubt, ultimately be boosted by the weaker pound. It is pretty obvious that being the unrivalled fina…

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The BoE cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25% today as well as pumping £170bn of new money into the economy as a further stimulus package to prevent the UK falling into recession following the Brexit vote in June. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted 9-0 to reduce rates by 0.25% cutting borrowing rates for the first time in 7 years. Forecasts for the growth of the UK economy were cut by the biggest single amount since regular forecast have been…

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UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne made his first statement since the UK’s EU referendum this morning in a bid to stabilise markets. He stressed that the UK government is “ready to deal with the consequences” and that the UK economy is strong. Despite these reassuring words, he also heeded that there will need to be “a period of adjustment” and that “there is going to be an impact on public finances”, although any new budget would b…

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Volatility in the markets is very likely to continue and even increase in the coming months. This could provide many profitable opportunities to the savvy trader. Geo-political risk is moving to the forefront of investors’ minds at present and is guaranteed to be increasingly influential in decision making for the remainder of 2016. We have the imminent Brexit referendum taking place on 23rd June; since its announcement on 20th Feb we have seen high volatility in Cable with…

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Bank of England Governor Mark Carney dampened expectations on the timing of the first UK rate hike innearly a decade yesterday, predominantly citing the recent slowdown in China and other emerging market economies as the main reason. "The outlook for global growth has weakened since the August inflation report," the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee said in a statement. The BOE highlighted that it is, by no means, in any rush to raise its benchmark interest rate and v…

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The Bank of England minutes for the MPC meeting ending on the 3June recorded that the committee voted unanimously (9 – 0) to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and asset purchases (QE) at £375bn. Lower inflation is likely to dissipate, which is in line with previous comments from Mark Carney comments that the slowdown in inflation was transitory due to the sudden fall in energy prices. Any change from the MPC member voting from 9-0 would be seen as a signal that monetary pol…

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The Markit / CIPS UK Services PMI missed analysts’ expectations; the reading was 56.5 in May compared with a strong figure of 59.6 in April. The release for May was the ninth consecutive month above 50.0, signifying expansion. The Services PMI figure followed Tuesday’s Manufacturing PMI release that also missed the analyst consensus. The Markit release highlighted that the outcome of the UK election had reduced business uncertainty. A key point that the market seems to have…

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At 10pm on Thursday 7May the BBC exit polls were released, defying the opinion polls from before the election, predicting the Conservative Party would gain the majority of seats. Sterling rallied in the FX markets nearly 2 cents (1.5245 – 1.5447), as traders repositioned for the exit poll outcome. The expectation in the run up to the election had been for a coalition government, however the permutation’s of government varied, but a Conservative majority was a distant outlier.…

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Sterling has rallied from early April lows to trade at the highest level against the US dollar since the start of 2015 (YTD). In 2014 GBPUSD peaked at just below 1.72, then trending down to the April 2015 low of 1.4565. As the pair traded to the April lows, the media coverage was bullish on the US Dollar with the expectation of a June rate hike from the Fed, and bearish on Sterling with the UK election outcome uncertain. Fast forward to the middle of May, and the US Dollar has been on the ba…

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Sterling surged as the exit polls were released last night, will the unexpected forecast that the Conservative Party would gain an even larger share of seats. The opinion polls prior to the election had the Labour and Conservative Party tied, however the Tory’s support has come through at the ballot box. The number of seats required to have an outright majority is 326, the initial exit polls estimated 316, with the latest view being around the number for a clear majority. T…

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Initial reaction in the FX market is that Sterling surged against the US Dollar and the Euro. The BBC exit polls released at 10pm (London) estimates that the Conservative Party have gained a larger amount of seats than had been estimated, approximately 316, meaning that they are the largest party. The Tory’s wouldn’t have enough seats to have an outright majority (326 seats), however the market’s reaction is that they believe the Conservatives will hold power in some form o…

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