Analysis

We have seen significant moves in cable over the last couple of days; the pound climbed over 200 points against the US dollar following Governor Mark Carney’s address at the annual Mansion House speech on Thursday evening. Carney gave his biggest hint yet that interest rates could rise before the turn of the year, saying ‘there’s already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike in the UK and this decision is becoming more balanced. It could happ…

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Guest Blog, Abshire-Smith Iraq Country Manager 12/06/2014 14:30 (London) Iraqi forces sought to check the rapid advance of Islamist militants who had seized major cities, including Iraq’s second largest city, and Saddam’s hometown of the Tikrit. What has concerned energy markets is the control of one of Iraq’s largest refinery Beiji which produces 310,000 BPD. However State media has just reported that Iraq’s Oil Minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi said that the…

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their Labour Market statistics for the UK at 9:30am on Wednesday morning. The headline 3-month unemployment rate for February - April 2014 beat expectations, being released at 6.6%, below expectations of 6.7% and the previous release of 6.8%. The UK government will be very pleased with these figures, reinforcing their plan to bring the UK economy back on track, however the opposition is likely to focus on the wage growth. Average earnings gro…

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Today is Non-Farm Payrolls Friday, the monthly release of the US employment figures that are closely watched by traders. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the report at 13:30, with the headline number of jobs added during May and the unemployment rate. The Fed’s focus on the threshold unemployment rate of 6.5% seems to be waning, with the wage growth and capacity the concentration. Following the release there is usually considerable volatility as traders attempt to react…

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The latest rate decision from the European Central Bank will be announced today at 12:45 GMT. This is the most eagerly awaited rate decision, certainly for quite a few months, possibly ever, especially after President Mario Draghi hinted in their meeting last month that they would act today. Many economists are expecting an unveiling of a package of measures but there are some discrepancies over the exact ones to be used. Since the May meeting, pressure has only increased on President…

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UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released at 9:30 on Wednesday, slightly above expectations at 58.6, versus April’s 58.7. This is another strong print for the UK economy and reinforces the strength in the economic recovery. The services PMI accompanies strong survey reports from the manufacturing and construction sectors, pointing towards a relatively balanced recovery. A highlight of the statistical release was the service sector employment growth strengthened to…

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The World Cup starts on the 12th June running until the 13th July, being hosted by Brazil, South America. The global scale of the sport means that there are significant amounts of money invested into advertising, hospitality, sponsorship and infrastructure. Is there a correlation between the fortunes of a football team in the tournament and a nation's currency? Well in short, no, there isn’t a direct link over the long term, but the tournament does have an impact on the marke…

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The UK Building Society, Nationwide released their monthly House Price Index in May, showing that prices continued to edge higher. In May prices grew by 0.7% and were up by 11.3% compared with May 2013. The average home in the UK now costs £186,512. House prices and Sterling House prices have become a contentious factor and the potential caveat for increasing base interest rates from the record low of 0.50%. The growth in property prices has fuelled concerns from analysts a…

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May 2014 Abshire-Smith;the FCA regulated broker, located in the City of London, England announced that it has recently entered into a new partnership with Optimal Payments; the world’s largest independent money transfer businesses and the developer of Neteller online payment service. The new partnership will provide Abshire-Smith Clients with a fast, simple and secure wayto fund their trading accounts through NETELLER. Starting a new account with Neteller is easy and free a…

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New official statistics have been released by the HM Treasury today detailing that some 7,313 homes have been sold so far under the 2nd part of the Help To Buy mortgage guarantee scheme covering the six months from 8th October 2013 to 31st March 2014; a further 20,548 new homes were sold through the scheme’s first instalment during the 13 months proceeding this. It cannot be argued that the scheme has indeed helped a lot of hard working people successfully get on the housing ladd…

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The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) has reported today that retail sales growth remains steady, with the sixth consecutive month of growth. According to the Quarterly Distributive Trades Survey, the growth was at a slightly slower pace in May compared with the previous month. The release from the CBI noted that department stores’ volumes had declined compared with a year ago, which was replaced with strong performance in internet sales. The high-street continues to be u…

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The Office for National Statics (ONS) released their second estimate for the first quarter of the year’s economic growth in the UK at 9:30 this morning. The estimate was in-line with their first estimate at 0.8%, and was the fifth consecutive increase. This is a positive release for the UK economy following yesterdays, impressive retail sales figures. According to the ONS: "This is the longest period of continuous growth since the 2008-09 downturn and GDP now stands at 0.6%…

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The Bank of England Minutes of the MPC meeting for the 7th and 8th of May were released at 9:30am today. The MPC voted 9 – 0 to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and asset purchases on hold at £375bn. The minutes were more hawkish than previous, with the first hint of a change in tone. The key line in the release: The Committee would continue to refine its views as the economy evolved, and for some members the monetary policy decision was becoming more balanced.…

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CPI data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning, was slightly higher than expected, and up on March. The release for April was 1.8%, with the expectations of 1.7% versus March’s 1.6%. This is still below the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target, but it was the first increase of inflation in 10 months. The ONS noted that the increase was primarily attributed to transport costs; notably air fares, sea fares and motor fuels. The release also highlig…

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