Morning Call

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research released their estimates that output grew by 0.8% in the 3 months ending in February. This is a slight improvement on the estimate for January which believed growth to be at +0.7% for the prevailing 3 months, though this undershoots the pre-recession peak. Interest Rates The NIESR anticipates that the Bank of England will leave rates unchanged at the record low of 0.5% until the Q2 2015. There is concern from some market comm…

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It’s the first Friday of the month, which means that it at 13:30 (London) the pivotal US employment report will be released. The Non-Farm Payrolls report is compiled by the United States Department of Labor for jobs in manufacturing, goods, services and construction, but doesn’t include non-profit, private household or farm works (due to the seasonal swings). The unusually disruptive weather has caused havoc across North America, which has been the go-to reason for analysts…

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As the 5 year anniversary of the Bank of England cutting interest rates to 0.5%, the bank has announced to leave the base rate and asset purchases unchanged. The current level of asset purchases (QE) remains at £375bn. The 5 year anniversary is a significant length of time for interest rates to be held at the record low of 0.50%. The ultra-loose monetary policy has been highlighted as a risk to the economy by some analysts. Mark Carney’s policy of Forward Guidance headline…

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On Monday as tensions seemed to escalate, with rumours of deadlines for a Ukrainian surrender of warships in the Crimean region. Investors sought safe havens for assets, the precious metal was bid, reaching multi-month highs trading up to $1350/oz, in the currency markets Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen strengthened, with the Russian Ruble and Ukrainian Hryvnia reaching all-time lows. The Russian central bank intervened in the markets due to the weakening Ruble, and hiked interest rat…

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The Ukrainian people in Kiev have recently overthrown the countries elected leader of their ties with Europe. The country is circled from the North and East by Russia, with links to Europe in the West of the country. Historically there are strong Soviet ties, primarily in the East of the country and the Southern region of Crimea. The bloody clashes in Kiev have left the country in limbo with Pro Russian and Pro European elements pushing for different allegiance. The situation escalated…

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On Wednesday morning the Office for National Statistics released the UK quarterly GDP growth release that remains unchanged at 0.7%. The release highlighted a positive that the construction industry output increased by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2013, compared to a previous estimate of a 0.3% decrease. The 2013 full year growth estimate is 1.8%, which though significantly below the pre-crisis levels this is a positive economy and something to build upon. The UK economy has begun to s…

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The Bank of England Minutes released on Wednesday, showed that the MPC voted unanimously to keep interest rates at the record low rate of 0.50% and asset purchases unchanged. The BoE base rate has now been at 0.50% since March 2009. In the minutes it said that despite the sharp fall in unemployment, the committee believed that the economy is able to “absorb spare capacity further before raising rates”. The change in focus from the 7% unemployment threshold to reducing the o…

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The inflation rate for the UK fell to below the Bank of England’s target of 2% for the first time since November 2009. Inflation has overshot the 2% target since then, which had been a concern for analysts, who believed the central bank would need to raise interest rates to combat the rise. Mark Carney has now released “Forward Guidance 2.0,” which is focused on the output gap, which last year the BoE said was “unobservable” and “difficult to explain&rdquo…

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Here is the Abshire-Smith President's day trading holiday schedule for theVertexFX 10andMetaTrader 4platformsover the holiday period. All effort has been made to ensure that these trading hours are correct, and the information is accurate at time of release. However there is a small possibility that these hours could change for reasons beyond the Abshire-Smith’s desks control. If you need any assistance please contact us (dealing@abshire-smith.com). This information i…

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The Bank of England governor Mark Carney released the Quarterly Inflation report on Wednesday morning followed by a Q&A session. Key Headlines *Stimulus will need to be exceptional for some time *BOE SEES UNEMPLOYMENT FALLING TO 7% IN QTR THROUGH JANUARY *BOE SEES SCOPE TO KEEP 0.5% RATE AFTER JOBLESS THRESHOLD HIT *BOE SEES CPI 1.7% IN 2Q 2015 BASED ON MKT RATE EXPECTATIONS The full Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report In the FX market…

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Janet Yellen the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairwoman will make her first public appearance today. The greenback is trading near a two-week high, as investors believe that Yellen will have a dovish outlook, and will leave the level of stimulus unchanged. Ben Bernanke the previous Fed Chairman had begun the tapering process, as the US economy is weaned off of the ultra-loose monetary policy. Fridays employment data, was a disappointment which some analysts believe will be one of t…

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The Federal Open Market Committee concluded their two day meeting on Wednesday and voted unanimously to taper the level of monthly asset purchases by $10bn from the 1st February. At Ben Bernanke’s final meeting, the reduction of asset purchases was split equally between Treasury’s and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The pace is now expected to continue with a monthly reduction of $10bn as the Fed attempts to wean the US economy from the ultra loose fiscal policy. Some ana…

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The fourth quarter growth figures released by the Office for National Statistics showed that the economy grew by 0.7%, in line with expectations, but slightly below the Bank of England’s projections. Following the release sterling initially weakened against the greenback by around 50 pips, and the subsequently recovered to back above 1.66: Full ONS release. Figures released earlier this morning from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported that the…

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The Japanese Yen has strengthened in the FX market against the greenback during the last 48 hours, reaching a low 102.515. On Thursday data released from the US jobless figures showed that economy is still finding its feet. The Yen has strengthened trading through to a 102 handle, with expected support from previous lows at 102.49 on the 17th December and 102.46 on the 12th December.…

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The UK Unemployment rate for December compiled by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined to 7.1%, lower than the median estimate of economists of 7.3% and Novembers 7.4%. This is the biggest fall since 1997, the number of out of work dropped by 137,000. The data released by the Office for National Statistics showed that the unemployment rate had dropped to near the Bank of England’s forward guidance threshold of 7%. The BoE had previously highlighted the unemployment rate…

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