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The euro has retraced some of the move upwards against the dollar from last week, when Bernanke surprised markets and didn’t taper the Feds bond-buying programme. Tuesdays IFO Business climate index data from the powerhouse of Europe (Germany) was the highest since March 2012, but was below analysts’ expectations. Technical Outlook The pair is currently testing the 14.6% Fib with the RSI pointing higher, which could see the euro push back up towards the 8-month high r…

The UK financial regulatory body has evolved from the previous regulator, the Financial Services Authority (UK) into two separate regulatory authorities; the Financial Conduct Authority (www.FCA.org.uk) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (www.bankofengland.co.uk). Abshire-Smith was previously regulated by the FSA (UK), and is now regulated by the FCA. The company’s details can be located on the Financial Services Register. What has happened to the Financial Services Au…

At the Wednesday announcement and the press conference the Federal Reserved surprised investors by holding the monthly stimulus at the current level of $85bn. The majority of analysts has expect the FOMC to vote to begin to taper at the September meeting, with the size being in dispute. The decision was released at 19:00 (London) with an accompanying statement followed by a press conference at 19:30 with Fed Chief, Ben Bernanke. The unchanged level of monthly bond-purchased had c…

Will the FOMC announce that they are to begin tapering their monthly bond-purchases today or not? At some point they will have to beginning tightening monetary policy as the endless supply of artificially cheap money would have negative consequences for the US economy. The FOMC has been meeting for the last two days and at 19:00 (London) the outcome of the meeting will be announced to the markets. Speculation and front running of the expected tapering has engrossed traders for the last…

Spot Gold Gold has been a favourite for traders recently, speculating as to when the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its monthly bond-purchases (QE). The tightening on monetary policy from the current level of $85 billion is expected to begin after this weeks (September 17-18) meeting. Analyst’s expectations are that the Fed will reduce its current level by $10-15 billion per month, from the current $85 billion of purchases. The precious metal has been seen as a hedge…

The UK unemployment rate has been brought into investors focuses following Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney’s Forward Guidance. He stated that the interest rates would be held at the record low of 0.50%, until the unemployment rate drops to 7% from the current 7.8%. The Bank of England’s forecasts that the unemployment rate will fall to 7% in 2016, though the markets are pricing an increase in interest rates in 2014. There are various caveats to the Forward Guida…

Technical Outlook Level of resistance 1.3888 (23.6% Fib retracement line) Major support at 1.3104 (50.0% Fib) supporting Thursday trading RSI is mid-range, currently point down, but could support a retest high Macro Outlook The euro has traded upto a week high against the greenback during the Asian session, coming off during the European trading. Trading has been focused around the potential military strikes from a US/French coalition following the alleged use o…

Technical Outlook Sterling has been bid in FX space in an upward channel for the last 2 weeks, within a bigger upward trend since the end of June. 1.5717 being the recent high was broken during the Asian session with the pair reaching 1.5732, the next level of resistance is likely to be 1.5751, which was the previous daily high on the 17th June. The RSI is relatively high (76.2) which could mean the pair is overbought in the short term, seeing some profit taking. Macr…

At 13:30 (London) the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the US employment report for August. Bank and broker estimates for US Non-Farm report for August: Morgan Stanley +190K Danske Bank +200K Lloyds TSB Bank +185K Standard Chartered Bank +200K Commerzbank AG +175K Wells Fargo & Co. +205K Credit Agricole CIB +160K Soc Gen +220K Moody’s +185K Goldman, Sachs & Co. +200K RBC Capital Markets +185K H…

It is the first Friday of the month and that means it is the release of the pivotal US jobs report; Non-Farm Payrolls. The monthly release is a significant data point for the economy, as the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has reiterated at the FOMC meetings that the bond-buying programme (QE) will remain if unemployment remains above 7%. Bernanke also stated that they would hike interest rates from the current record low of 0.25%, last altered in 2008. ADP, Initial Jobless Claim…

As expected the MPC have left interest rates on hold at 0.50% and quantitative easing at £375bn. Carney is now under pressure following the recent better than expected data points from the UK, pointing to a recovery that it is gaining traction. The Governors Forward Guidance, of ultra-loose monetary policy seems to be being ignored by the markets, as traders believe that the bank will be forced to raise rates earlier than forecast. The minutes of the meeting will be publish…