Analysis

Japan's government is finalizing an emergency economic stimulus package of up to Y10 trillion ($113 billion) that includes public works spending of more than Y5 trillion, the Yomiuri Shimbun said Monday in its morning edition Executives holding the purse strings of the UK's leading companies are in more optimistic mood after steering their businesses through a double-dip recession and strengthening balance sheets, research out on Monday shows – Daily Telegraph UK Ll…

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It is the first Friday of the month, which means that today there is the release of the pivotal US employment figures, Non-Farm Payrolls. The release can be one of the most volatile economic announcements of the month. Equity markets started the first trading session of the year with sizeable rallies following the fiscal cliff agreement. On Thursday the markets came off, as traders took profit from Wednesday’s move. Today’s jobs report refocuses investors to the economic fundamen…

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Happy New Year from all at Abshire-Smith, may 2013 be prosperous for you. Today is the first trading session of the New Year, please check your client emails for market trading times, or contact us if you are unsure. Many traders will have been away from their desks over the holiday period, with the majority back this morning. The US house of Representatives has passed the fiscal cliff bill, which has been discussed at length over the last 6 months. The Congressional Budget Offic…

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The overindulgence of Christmas has been, yet the appetite to head out into the sales in London seems as big as ever. The competition for the first move advantage of cutting prices, led to many retailers beginning their sales in mid-December, with their margins being squeezed, to draw in footfall. This is a positive for the shopper to find bargains, but for many zombie-retailers the increased revenue in the short term will do little to change the midterm outlook. Having to entice shoppers wi…

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The square mile seems to be a lot quieter today as many employees have booked annual leave for the Christmas to New Year break. With many traders closing their books for the holiday period, it is likely that volumes will be low and liquidity thin. This could see markets become slightly erratic moves, or trade in a marginal band with little direction. Abshire-Smith’s client are recommended to check their market calendars for trading hours, and plan ahead their risk management stra…

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UBS facing new Hong Kong rate fiddling probe - CityAM S&P cut Cyprus credit rating to CCC+ Trafigura, the commodities trader earns $1bn twice in a row - Financial Times BP and Rosneft plan TNK integration – The Daily Telegraph Tesco has lost its appeal against the OFT for collusion - The Times UK GfK Dec consumer confidence slides to -29 (f/c -25) vs -22 November Chinese ships enter Japanese waters near disputed islands – CNN For the…

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Christmas is under a week away, and the New Year isn’t far. Until the 2nd of January, with many traders likely to close or cover positions over the holiday period and be away from their desks, liquidity from Monday the 24th December until the 2nd of January should be relatively thin. Some analysts have been putting the dollar weakness down to fund managers squaring positions ahead of month end and year end. Cable is trading at the highest price since mid-September, and EURUSD tra…

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Fitch affirms Italy at A- with a negative outlook Insurers are conducting a war of words with regulators trying to prevent a repeat of AIG’s collapse –Financial Times Commodity trading giant Trafigura mulls London float of its subsidiary Puma BP is looking to change the terms of its contract with the Iraq government for the Rumaila oilfield, as it seeks to scale back its production target – The Daily Telegraph The coalition is pressing ahead with pla…

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Saudia Arabia cuts oil output -Financial Times South Korean defence stocks briefly spiked following the announcement of successful North Korea missile launch – Bloomberg Struggling retailer, HMV gets £40m supplier support – The Daily Telegraph US trade gap widened in October – WSJ China ramped up production of industrial materials including copper and oil products in November, suggesting smelters and refiners are gaining confidence that the wo…

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This morning is the first European trading session of the week, following Friday’s better the expected jobs report and data from China over the weekend pointing to a faster than expected economic recovery.The global economy has become particularly reliant on Chinese products and high-end demand from the growing Chinese middle class. Fears of a so-called hard landing for the Chinese economy following sustained double digit growth have been a concern for economists and investors around t…

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It is the final trading session of the week in Europe, and London currently feels like the Antarctic with the dark mornings, and freezing weather. Both the Bank of England and ECB left rates and QE unchanged as expected, with both sterling and the euro barely moving upon the release. Today is Non-Farm Payrolls, which is the eagerly anticipated among traders, and can be one of the most volatile economic releases of the month. Median figure for the release is 93K, and has seen some banks…

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On Wednesday George Osborne admitted that the UK government had failed to meet both its growth and debt forecasts that it had set. This was an embarrassing moment for the Chancellor , as previous austerity measures laid out in “plan A,” were set in order to gain control over the spiralling UK national debt. Further austerity measures were introduce as Osborne attempts to balance the books, which notably have been considerably impacted by global crisis in the US and Europe. During…

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Morning Market Headlines RBA cut rates as expected by 25bps to 3.0%, to “foster sustainable growth” High frequency trades improve markets, Bank of England experts argue, by assisting price discovery - CityAM Ex-Goldman trader (current with Morgan Stanley) is probed by SEC over market manipulation – Reuters UK is facing a lost decade for growth – CityAM Feds Bullard favours US$25bn of QE which provided the same impact as US$45bn via Twist…

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It is the first market update of the trading month, and in the UK the countdown to Christmas begins. If the shorter hours of day light hadn’t reminded people that is now winter, then the freezing temperatures over the last few days have. The shops on the UK seem to be attempting a first mover advantage, with many slashing prices prior to their busiest period. I briefly ventured into a few shops at the weekend and was amazed to see how many retailers were offering discounts! Many chains…

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