Archive - May, 2014

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New official statistics have been released by the HM Treasury today detailing that some 7,313 homes have been sold so far under the 2nd part of the Help To Buy mortgage guarantee scheme covering the six months from 8th October 2013 to 31st March 2014; a further 20,548 new homes were sold through the scheme’s first instalment during the 13 months proceeding this. It cannot be argued that the scheme has indeed helped a lot of hard working people successfully get on the housing ladd…

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The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) has reported today that retail sales growth remains steady, with the sixth consecutive month of growth. According to the Quarterly Distributive Trades Survey, the growth was at a slightly slower pace in May compared with the previous month. The release from the CBI noted that department stores’ volumes had declined compared with a year ago, which was replaced with strong performance in internet sales. The high-street continues to be u…

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The Office for National Statics (ONS) released their second estimate for the first quarter of the year’s economic growth in the UK at 9:30 this morning. The estimate was in-line with their first estimate at 0.8%, and was the fifth consecutive increase. This is a positive release for the UK economy following yesterdays, impressive retail sales figures. According to the ONS: "This is the longest period of continuous growth since the 2008-09 downturn and GDP now stands at 0.6%…

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The Bank of England Minutes of the MPC meeting for the 7th and 8th of May were released at 9:30am today. The MPC voted 9 – 0 to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and asset purchases on hold at £375bn. The minutes were more hawkish than previous, with the first hint of a change in tone. The key line in the release: The Committee would continue to refine its views as the economy evolved, and for some members the monetary policy decision was becoming more balanced.…

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CPI data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning, was slightly higher than expected, and up on March. The release for April was 1.8%, with the expectations of 1.7% versus March’s 1.6%. This is still below the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target, but it was the first increase of inflation in 10 months. The ONS noted that the increase was primarily attributed to transport costs; notably air fares, sea fares and motor fuels. The release also highlig…

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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) released their inflation report for May 2014. The dovish tone of the pre-prepared text, led to sterling trading new session lows in the FX market, as the optimism for an interest rate hike in the near term was dampened as Carney attempted to lower expectations. The BoE left their forecasts for both inflation and growth almost unchanged from the previous release, reinforcing the expectation for a rate hike will not be until 2015.…

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The Bank of England has the enviable position that the UK economy is growing and needs to time the exit of ultra-loose monetary policy. Interest rates have been at the record low (0.50%) for over 5 years, and the economy is in recovery mode. The majority of economists are pencilling in a rate rise for Q1/2 in 2015. How is the economy doing? Economic growth: 3% for 2014 and 2.4% in 2015 (Confederation of British Industries) 2.9% for 2014 and 2.7% in 201…

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Following the low volumes experienced during the European Bank Holiday weekend, it has been another bullish start to the working week for GBPUSD; trading up to 1.6990 in Tuesday’s European trading session. The question is, however, is this trend set to continue? The general consensus on the street seems to be that it will, with some forecasting that there could be a rise to 1.76 by Q4; strong economic data in recent weeks have been cited and with renewed expe…

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The eagerly anticipated monthly US employment release is today at 13:30 BST (London). The Depart for Labor releases the Non-Farm payroll employment report, which covers jobs in goods, manufacturing, and construction companies but excludes farm workers, non-profit organisations and private households. This release will closely watched by traders following the abysmal US Q1 GDP release of 0.1% growth. The figure was a huge disappoint, though the cold weather has been largely blamed for t…

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The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI for April released at 9:30am beat analysts expectations with a print of 57.3 for April vs 55.8 March. The manufacturing index rose to a 5 month high, registering one of the best readings over the last 3 years. This is a significant boost to the UK government, as the economic recovery begins to really take hold, though this puts further pressure on the Bank of England. Carney reiterated that increasing interest rates would happen when the slac…

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