Archive - November, 2013

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The media coverage of the housing market in the UK has been prominent since the economic crisis began in 2007. The global melt down began with mortgages being given to sub-prime borrowers, and then repackaged and sold as investment grade debt by banks and brokers. The property market in the UK ground to following the collapse of Lehman’s as banks tightened up their lending requirements and some home-owners were left in negative equity. Fast forward 5 years and there is a resurgen…

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The Federal Open Mark Committee (FOMC) left the potential for tapering to begin in December, stating “warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months.” The FOMC is walking a tight rope, as it attempts to soften the market impact of reducing its current level of quantitative easing. The Fed is attempting to signal to the market a vague timetable of tightening, without shocking investors. It is a difficult task, if they are too vague, then markets are left unsure, if the ex…

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The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold interest rates unchanged at the record-low rate of 0.5%, and the level of asset purchases at £375bn. Under the Banks forward guidance policy the focus had been on the unemployment level falling to the threshold of 7%. However this target was left in question following the BoE Inflation report with Carney, saying the bank might not raise rates immediately following a drop in unemployment. MPC Vote…

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The Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s comments during the latest inflation report on Tuesday. Prior to the news conference Sterling was bid on the back of the better than expected employment figures, which had traders predicting that the BoE would raise rates sooner than had been predicted. Under the banks forward guidance, 7% unemployment level had been the threshold, highlighted by Carney as the level that monetary policy would begin to be tightened. This was thrown in to…

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Forex Magnates London Summit 2013

On Tuesday, I was fortunate enough to attend the Forex Magnates Summit in London. The annual conference plays host to participants from all areas of the FX market including brokers, payment providers, technology vendors, prime brokers, prime of prime providers and liquidity aggregators. The conference is a two-day exhibition and conference, with different discussion panels. The industry specialists from high profile members of the FX community discussed current topics and issues.…

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UK ILO Unemployment beat expectations, coming in at 7.6% vs expectations of 7.7%. The number of unemployed people in the UK fell 48,000 to 4.27million. The Bank of England’s forward guidance; focused upon a headline unemployment rate of 7%. Today’s figure is a positive step towards this level, which potentially will see an increase in interest rates in the not too distant future. However one potential concern highlighted by analysts is the relatively stable hourly earnings…

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Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI business activity rises at the fastest pace since May 1997. This is a strong figure, which builds upon recent data points from the UK. Following the release Sterling rallied in the FX market, with cable trading back above the 1.60 handle. Key points: -The backlog of work increased pushing employment payrolls higher -“Manufacturing, services and construction all continued to see very strong rates of expansion, pointing to an on-going broad-b…

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On Monday, there was further good news for the UK economy, as the Construction PMI was released at the highest level since 2007. The British economy is beginning to see sustainable growth following the economic crisis that began over 5 years ago. The positive macro data adds further pressure on Carney, that the Bank of England will need to bring forward the tightening of monetary policy. UK #construction PMI highest since Sep'07, = c2.5% q/q growth rate for sector & big GD…

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