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NFP views from 10 major banks

CIBC: The pace of hiring should look more or less unchanged when November’s data is released on Friday. With the economy progressing towards full employment, job gains are likely to stabilize around the 160K mark. While that’s noticeably slower than the monthly gains seen earlier this year, it’s well ahead of the roughly 100K needed to soak up population growth. A print of 165K in November would see the unemployment rate hold steady at 4.9%.

Nomura: We forecast that nonfarm payrolls increased by 160k in November, comparable with the gains seen in October. We expect a modest rise of 5k in government payrolls, implying that private payrolls increased by 155k. Incoming data on the labor market, for the most part, imply steady employment activity with limited involuntary layoffs in NovemberWe expect the unemployment rate to decline further to 4.8% in November. On wages, we expect growth in average hourly earnings to slow to 0.1% m-o-m (2.7% y o-y) following a sharp increase of 0.4% m-o-m in the previous month. We think that the prior month’s strong wage growth was artificially amplified by inclement weather holding down the average weekly hours worked during the survey reference period. To that end, we think that some payback is warranted in November as conditions returned back to normal.

SEB: Our forecasts are for 200k on the headline, 190k on private payrolls, 4.8% on the unemployment rate and 0.2% on average hourly earnings.

BofA Merrill: Recent labor market data has continued to show solid improvement. We expect the trend to continue in November with 170,000 in nonfarm payroll growth, a slight deceleration from the 176,000 average over the prior three months. We expect 165,000 in private payroll growth, with a modest 5,000 expansion in government payrolls. We expect the labor force participation rate to remain at 62.8% and the unemployment rate to also remain unchanged at 4.9%. We expect a softer 0.2% mom gain in average hourly earnings after the strong 0.4% mom pop last month, leaving the year-over-year rate at 2.8%. This shows continued improvement in wage growth, but still a less-thanhealthy 3%-4% pace of growth. Remember that the strong gain in average hourly earnings last month was concentrated in three categories: mining, utilities and information technology. We think that there is propensity for a modest reversal given the magnitude of the increase in all three. There are some risks of a weaker print and/or a downward revision to September wage growth. We expect average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.4.

Barclays: We see asymmetric risks to the USD this week as the employment report takes central stage. A number close to our expectation of 175k or even lower would keep the Fed on track as it is assumed that a deceleration in job creation is normal as the labour market is near full employment. On the other hand, a higher number (closer to 200k) would signal that the momentum is still strong, and that additional stimulus would probably lead the Fed to act faster, accelerating USD trend. We expect the unemployment rate to decline to 4.8% from 4.9%, average hourly earnings to rise 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y, and the average workweek to remain unchanged at 34.4 hours.

Goldman: The October employment report will be released on Friday, and we expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 200k (consensus +175k, last +161k), unemployment to edge down to 4.8% and average hourly earnings to increase by 0.1% month-on-month.

Credit Agricole: For November non-farm payrolls our economists expect a slight acceleration to 175K, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%. After a 0.4% MoM jump in October, average hourly earnings growth should slow to 0.1% MoM, partly reflecting calendar effects. This would bring down the YoY rate to 2.7% from 2.8%.

SocGen: We look for another 165k increase in non-farm-employment, a 4.8% unemployment rate and 2.8% wage growth. Consistent with a December rate hike but a familiar story all the same and one that leaves us thinking that well over 90% of the widening trend in Treasuries/Bunds is already behind us. Further EUR/USD weakness will be much more about European politics than the relative growth trends.

UniCredit: US nonfarm payrolls likely rose another solid 175,000 in November. That is slightly faster than the 161,000 seen in October, but broadly in line with the average seen over the past three months. If anything, the most timely labor market indicator points to some upside risks, as jobless claims dropped to a 43year low in the middle of the month. In addition to very low layoffs, labor demand has remained strong with the number of jobs close to a record high. The jobless rate likely stayed at 4.9%, after declining in October. As the US economy approaches full employment, wage gains continue to rise, while payroll gains slow gradually towards the trend growth rate in the labor force.

UOB: We think the NFP is likely to add 200,000 jobs in November (vs median forecast of 180,000 and 161,000 in Oct) while the unemployment rate could edge lower to 4.8%, from 4.9% in Oct.

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