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BBC Exit Polls Predict Conservative is Largest Party

The exit polls released by the BBC at 10pm (London) predict that the Conservative Party has gained a larger proportion of seats in the general election that was expected.

BBC Exit poll (Survey by NOP/Mori)

Conservative: 316

Labour: 239

Scottish National Party: 58

Liberal Democrats: 10

Plaid Cymru: 2

Green Party: 2

Other 10


FX Market reaction

Sterling was bid on the release of the expectation that the Conservative Party will be the largest political party. The Conservative Party haven’t reached the 326 line in the sand, to claim that they are the majority party. With this number of seats and being the incumbent largest party, if the exit polls are accurate, then the Conservatives will mean the party holding power in the UK.

The equity and UK Bond markets are closed until the morning, with Sterling being the proxy for traders. The exit polls are the milestone with a long night ahead, with potential marginal seats not announcing as expected.

Expect further volatility in the FX market for GBP crosses.

GBPUSD: 1.5416

EURGBP: 0.7301

Looking ahead beyond the General Election results, a Conservative government will mean that there will be a historical referendum on the UK’s Eurozone membership. However that can wait. 

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