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Non-Farm Payrolls, What is the expectation?

It is the 1st August and the first Friday of the month, and today the US Bureau of Labor releases their employment figures, Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (London,UK). In the last few trading sessions, the USD has been bid against the majors, following Federal Reserve’s announcement of further tapering and policy statement that interest rates are not too far off. This has seen US indices trade lower, and Gold weaken by $20, now trading $1282/oz.

Recent data:

Initial jobless claims (July 26), rose by 23,000, to 302,000.

Continuing claims increased by 31,000 to 2,539,000

US ADP Employment Change (July) +218,000 jobs (+281,000 in June)

What does the Street expect?  

US Non-Farm Payrolls:

US Non-Farm Payrolls Estimates 1st August 2014

Source:Bloomberg, Reuters and Sigma Squawk

Potential reaction to figures

Wednesdays move from the Fed, has led investors to price in a interest rate hike in the near term. If the headline figure is over 200K, but below 250K, then the direction will likely be fuelled by the average hourly earnings. Obviously if there is significant revisions to last month’s data, this could be the driver.

Gold currently @ $1284/oz

EURUSD 1.3399

GBPUSD 1.6831 (following this morning’s weaker than expected PMI Manufacturing data)

If you are on Twitter, follow the #NFPGuesses hash tag for a mixture of guesses for their expectation of what the figure will be. (These are just guestimates)

A recommended read, is the Sigma Squawk NFP Preview

Please leave your estimate in the comments section below!


The above information and commentary is compiled from various sources, and is accurate to the best of Abshire-Smith’s knowledge, though unfortunately this cannot be guaranteed as they are third party opinions and subject to change. Please base any trading positions on your own views and research, and contact an independent financial advisor if you are unsure. Trading the financial markets involves significant potential risk of loss, potentially more than your initial investment. 

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