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What are the banks estimates for Non-Farm Payrolls?

Today is Non-Farm Payrolls Friday, the monthly release of the US employment figures that are closely watched by traders. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the report at 13:30, with the headline number of jobs added during May and the unemployment rate.

The Fed’s focus on the threshold unemployment rate of 6.5% seems to be waning, with the wage growth and capacity the concentration. Following the release there is usually considerable volatility as traders attempt to react to the employment report. 

What does the Street expect?

The medium estimate from the major banks and brokerages is a reasonably strong print of an increase of 218,000 jobs in May. On Wednesday the US ADP report missed expectations with a slightly disappointing +179K in May compared to Aprils 215K.

The employment component of Wednesday’s ISM Non-Manufacturing for May rose to 52.4 from 51.3, however both initial and continuing claims increased in May which could indicate a disappointing print. 

US Non-Farm Payroll Estimates May

If you are on Twitter, follow the #NFPGuesses hash tag for a mixture of guesses for their expectation of what the figure will be. (These are just guestimates)

Sigma Squawk May Payrolls Report

Please leave your estimate in the comments section below!


The above information and commentary is compiled from various sources, and is accurate to the best of Abshire-Smith’s knowledge, though unfortunately this cannot be guaranteed as they are third party opinions and subject to change. Please base any trading positions on your own views and research, and contact an independent financial advisor if you are unsure. Trading the financial markets involves significant potential risk of loss, potentially more than your initial investment. 

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