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US Non-Farm Payroll Report Bank Estimates

It is the first Friday of the month, and that means it is the release of the pivotal US employment figures, non-farm payrolls at 13:30pm (London). The figure enacts fear and excitement for investors due to the volatility the release can generate.

What are the bank’s estimates?

Morgan Stanley: +200K

Santander Asset Management: +220K

Commerzbank AG: +185K

Credit Agricole CIB: +200K

Goldman, Sachs & Co: +200K

Moody’s Analytics: +185K

Capital Economics: +200K

UBS: +195K

Deutsche Bank Securities: +225K

HSBC Markets: +165K

J.P. Morgan Chase: +175K

BofA Merrill Lynch Research: +180K

Consensus: +185K

Source: Bloomberg

The Abshire-Smith trading desk is bullish following the recent strong data points from the US (ISM employment component and the ADP release), with the expectation of an above consensus print of 215K.

If you are on Twitter follow the #NFPGuesses for market sentiment, though many of these are pure guesstimates. 

Market reaction

Traders know that strong employment figures are a key component in the decision for Ben Bernanke to taper the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme. The tightening of monetary policy, or at least the expectation of tightening, has led to Gold dropping nearly a third of its value since the beginning of 2013.

There are a multitude of figures to assess at the release, with potential revisions to previous months adding to the volatility.

A print above 200K would be a positive for the greenback in the FX markets, US indices and would likely lead to a selloff in Gold. However this move seems to have been pre-empted, with Gold $20 lower than yesterday, the Dollar bid in FX markets and US indices reaching record highs.

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