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Vertex FX 10

US Non-Farm Payrolls, Median Estimate is +200K Jobs

The pivotal monthly US employment release Nonfarm Payrolls is released this afternoon at 13:30 (London). The statistic is usually released on the first Friday of each month, detailing the total number of US citizens who are in paid work, excluding:

-Farm employees (due to seasonal nature of employment)

-Employees of non-profit organisations

-General government employees

US Non-Farm Payrolls can be the most volatile monthly release of macro data. The volatility will widen spreads and upon the release the price can spike violently, we recommend that our clients understand the potential risk of holding open positions over NFP’s.

The median analyst expectation is for a print of +200K jobs for March, however Credit Suisse have lowered their Non-Farm Payrolls forecast for Friday to 160K from 200K citing the weak ADP and ISM data.

The Abshire-Smith trading desk is also expecting the release to be below the median estimate (+180K) following the poor initial jobless figures on Thursday. 

Around the release of the NFP figure there is considerable "noise" distorting the price action, which can be very difficult to trade. This can also be compounded by revisions to the previous month's release, increasing the difficulty of trading over such a volatile economic release. 

If you are on Twitter follow the #NFPGuesses in the build-up to the release, though these are simply guesses, and shouldn’t be the basis for trading decisions.   

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